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PoliticsThe Town VoiceBalanced 

 

The Problem of Politicized Data

 

by Arlon Staywell
RICHMOND    October 2024   Using science to run the world might be more successful if more people were better scientists.  A very serious problem especially lately is that the data is politicized.  Conducting science on cockroaches or mice can be fairly easy.  Conducting science on human populations is fraught with politicized data.

People go to the hospital who are not very sick, other people who probably should go to the hospital refuse to go.  There is an assumption that those errors will balance out and the data will be reasonably dependable anyway.

There is no way to directly count illegal border crossings.  By definition those are people who escaped detection.  A number often used to estimate how many people did not get caught is the number of people who did get caught.  The assumption used there is that if there are more people getting caught that means there are more people not getting caught.

Measuring inflation is also complicated by numerous political factors.  The famous Consumer Price Index or CPI uses the prices on a "typical basket of goods" to determine overall pricing levels.  There is no better way.  It can be rather problematic what goes in the basket.  One of many problems is that there is more technology lately.  These days people talk more about inflation without reference to the CPI.

Deliberate Misrepresentation Attempted

It would be bad enough to have to depend on such crude measures, but making matters far worse are the very deliberate attempts to make some political point by using biased methods of counting, even using deliberately false counts.  People might "attempt" to cross the border without really planning to succeed so that it appears more people did succeed.  Border agents might be more lax in apprehending illegals so that it appears less are crossing illegally.  People with no more than a runny nose might seek hospitalization.  People near death might refuse to admit they are.  Just how expensive things seem can depend much on whether a person's political party is in power.  The price of gasoline is just one item somewhat controlled by the petroleum industry, but prices can appear higher "overall."

The problem is not just the Republicans or just the Democrats.  The problem is that none of the numbers mean very much anymore.  None.  There might always be a little politicization, but it is very extreme now.  My job, or something to which I have dedicated much of my life anyway, is to get good numbers to guide policy decisions.  No one is listening.  The Trump base hates me.  Democrats hate me.  All of them hate me because I will not endorse their bad counts.  I have considered becoming an auto mechanic instead.

Best Possible Pictures

From my trained perspective inflation is bad, but that isn't news.  It has been getting worse somewhat consistently for forty years.  That's why jobs go to countries whose currency is not inflated, labor costs less.  Tariffs are not going to solve the problem of inflation.

From my trained perspective the severity of the covid problem was far less than it was presented on television.  Mandates and shutdowns were quite inordinate to the real problem.  I say this with all due respect to the civil authorities who believed such measures were necessary.  I followed all the rules even when I suspected they were inordinate to the problem.  Unlike Trump at any time I did though present reasonable arguments that the problem had been severely politicized.

A Bizarre Candidate

One way to tell what a bad choice Trump is for president is that his own party presented such better choices.  It did appear Nicki Haley would be doing much better than Trump is.  Ron DeSantis is too young and needs adjustments, but even he could be doing better than Trump is.  A good questiaon then is why would the Republicans nominate Trump who might so easily lose to the Democrats?

Another obvious problem with Trump is one he saw for himself.  His followers are blindly obedient to whatever he says.  He could "stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue ... ," and that "joke" is a disturbingly accurate picture of the truth.  That is the most important reason to vote in some Democrat.  It is that time to stop the Republican Party, for now anyway.

Republican Party Identity

Try to understand what did happen to the Republican Party.  Before Islam rose in prominence in political news and the U.S. military was focused against communism, all a man had to do was get a military buzz cut and be on the political "right."  He didn't have to think about tariffs, inflation, military targets, military spending, or the Beatles, or the Rolling Stones.  All he had to do is follow orders.  Being one of the good guys was simple.  After the overthrow of the Shah of Iran men with long hair and beards appeared in the news who were obviously not communists.  Of course communists typically have short hair on males too, but many people in the either military never had to think about that.  With the rise of the Middle East in the news the U.S. military often found itself on the political left.  The Republican Party struggled for an identity.  The Tea Party attempted to popularize fiscal conservatism and a social preference that did not require military service.  They were not very successful

Donald Trump is the result of that breakdown of the Republican Party.  His support consists of people with no schooling who expect to be counted as good guys by simply getting a buzz cut for males, never minding the long hairs in Jerusalem, nor the complexities of world politics.

They are fighters not thinkers.  That is the reason numbers have become useless.  That is the reason the data has become so politicized.  Using science can work better when there are not so many amateur proponents of science out there reacting to those warriors.

Troublesome Data Abounds

I am certain something very important begins at conception, but I have more sense than to claim I can prove life begins at conception.  I cannot, and neither can you.  For one thing the Bible does not say life begins at conception.  Jeremiah 1:5 discusses before conception and does not address when that soul is embodied or what other opportunities for embodiment might exist.  It could even be just a picture or blueprint of a soul that God "knows."  More over, while the Bible does acknowledge the existence of a soul, science by itself does not.  Science cannot say when a soul is embodied because science cannot recognize a soul exists ever.

I was stunned when Harris was so dismissive of a "Christian" at her rally.  That could cost her the election.  Nevertheless there is the question how well he represents Christianity.  People who haven't read three pages of the Bible might best avoid trying to represent Christianity.